Azerbaijan's growing anti-Western rhetoric and its synchronization with Russia.

A brief overview of Azerbaijan's official and semi-official propaganda over the past two weeks:

During the studied period, both Azerbaijani high-ranking officials and pro-government media outlets expressed heightened criticism towards Western policies.

Hikmet Hajiyev, an aide to the President of Azerbaijan, described the report on the region by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen as false and called the author bribed by Armenians.

The head of national security, Ali Nagiyev, accused France of provoking a new war in the region, claiming that apart from assisting Armenians, France conducts espionage in Azerbaijan and creates intelligence networks.

Azerbaijan's ambassador to the Netherlands, Rakhman Mustafayev, called the April 5th EU-US-Armenia meeting a "manifestation of cynicism and hypocrisy."

Preceding the April 5th meeting, phone calls between the Azerbaijani President and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which ruled out any Western action against Azerbaijan, seemed like a step toward de-escalation.

However, the Azerbaijani side, at least outwardly, not only distrusts these assurances but also intensifies its rhetoric, both officially and in the media.

The President's press service accuses the US Secretary of State of double standards. Ilham Aliyev describes Western moves as attempts to turn Armenia into a military outpost and sees intentions to isolate Azerbaijan.

The Azerbaijani media also does not deviate from the official narrative, using even more extreme wording, targeting French officials and the European monitoring mission in Armenia, labeling them as biased, deceived, blind, spies, and the like.

The well-known media resource caliber.az prepares an extensive report where four so-called experts claim that the EU and the US are preparing Armenia for war.

The anti-Armenian rhetoric of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the official representative of the same agency, Maria Zakharova, is also actively reprinted.

Russian political scientist Alexander Perendzhiev gives an interview to SputnikAz, assuring that France is taking aggressive actions against Azerbaijan and Russia.

Another Russian expert, Bogdan Bezpalko, accuses Armenia of blackmailing Russia and hindering the friendship between Azerbaijan and Russia.

The Azerbaijani media also reprints claims by Russian parliamentarians about turning Armenia into Ukraine and eliminating the Armenian state.

The culmination of the joint Russian-Azerbaijani campaign becomes the "successful accreditation" of Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh by Azerbaijan and obtaining permission to conduct demining operations.

All this shows that Azerbaijan's adherence to the Russian political line not only continues but also intensifies markedly in recent weeks.

The possibility of military action against Armenia over the past two weeks:

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense issued 5 statements containing information about the accumulation of troops by the Republic of Armenia near the border, firing towards Azerbaijani positions, and troop movements by the Armenian armed forces.

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs also issued a statement accusing Armenia of provoking military clashes. However, this statement was a response to a statement by the Armenian MFA, not its own initiative.

Azerbaijani media resources were more active on this issue, spreading footage allegedly showing movements of Armenian troops, publishing articles with headlines like "Armenia is preparing for war," and producing various formats of reports aimed at psychologically pressuring the Armenian audience and denigrating the Republic of Armenia and the Armenian people.

Nevertheless, considering the cautious rhetoric of the Azerbaijani political leadership on this topic and the passive response of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, we currently (in the coming days and weeks) consider the likelihood of aggression against Armenia to be relatively low.